World Cup 2026

85 value plays·85 matches·model vs market

2 high-value picks are locked — every value play with an edge of 8%+ is Pro. Free shows the full board below that line.

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The big number is the model's win chance for the highlighted pick — calibrated to results so far. The small ± vs book priceunderneath is how much higher that chance is than the bookmaker's odds imply — a positive number means the model thinks the pick is underpriced, not a guaranteed win.

Round of · 16FT · 0–0

Brazil

Home

Norway

Away

BTTS: Yes

Both Teams Score@ 1.80Fades public

Model win chance65%

+10.2% vs book price

Round of · 16Jul 6 · 00:00 in 2h 58m

Mexico

Home

England

Away

BTTS: No

Both Teams Score@ 1.80

Model win chance59%

+6.2% vs book price

Round of · 16Jul 6 · 19:00 in 21h 58m

Portugal

Home

Spain

Away

BTTS: Yes

Both Teams Score@ 1.80

Model win chance57%

+4.8% vs book price

Round of · 16Jul 7 · 00:00 in 26h 58m

USA

Home

Belgium

Away

Pro pick+11.0% edgethe model's play on this match is locked

Round of · 16Jul 7 · 16:00 in 42h 58m

Argentina

Home

Egypt

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 1.86

Model win chance55%

+2.5% vs book price

Round of · 16Jul 7 · 20:00 in 46h 58m

Switzerland

Home

Colombia

Away

BTTS: Yes

Both Teams Score@ 2.00

Model win chance54%

+7.0% vs book price

Quarter-finalsJul 9 · 20:00 in 94h 58m

France

Home

Morocco

Away

Pro pick+10.8% edgethe model's play on this match is locked

Round of · 32FT · 1–0

Colombia

Home

Ghana

Away

Home Win

Match Result@ 1.59

Model win chance69%

+6.7% vs book price

Round of · 16FT · 0–3

Canada

Home

Morocco

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 1.68

Model win chance63%

+5.9% vs book price

Round of · 16FT · 0–1

Paraguay

Home

France

Away

Draw

Match Result@ 7.50

Model win chance26%

+12.3% vs book price

Round of · 32FT · 2–0

Switzerland

Home

Algeria

Away

BTTS: Yes

Both Teams Score@ 1.91

Model win chance56%

+6.1% vs book price

Round of · 32FT · 1–1

Australia

Home

Egypt

Away

Home Win

Match Result@ 3.50

Model win chance36%

+7.0% vs book price

Round of · 32FT · 3–2

Argentina

Home

Cape Verde Islands

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.27

Model win chance48%

+5.4% vs book price

Round of · 32FT · 2–0

USA

Home

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Away

BTTS: Yes

Both Teams Score@ 2.30

Model win chance55%

+10.3% vs book price

Round of · 32FT · 3–0

Spain

Home

Austria

Away

BTTS: Yes

Both Teams Score@ 2.55

Model win chance53%

+12.6% vs book price

Round of · 32FT · 2–1

Portugal

Home

Croatia

Away

Over 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.12

Model win chance53%

+7.3% vs book price

Round of · 32FT · 2–0

Mexico

Home

Ecuador

Away

BTTS: No

Both Teams Score@ 1.67

Model win chance70%

+10.8% vs book price

Round of · 32FT · 2–1

England

Home

Congo DR

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.01

Model win chance61%

+10.8% vs book price

Round of · 32FT · 3–2

Belgium

Home

Senegal

Away

Over 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.31

Model win chance55%

+10.2% vs book price

Round of · 32FT · 1–1

Netherlands

Home

Morocco

Away

Away Win

Match Result@ 3.75

Model win chance33%

+4.8% vs book price

Round of · 32FT · 1–2

Ivory Coast

Home

Norway

Away

Away Win

Match Result@ 2.10

Model win chance48%

+1.3% vs book price

Round of · 32FT · 3–0

France

Home

Sweden

Away

BTTS: Yes

Both Teams Score@ 1.95Fades public

Model win chance59%

+10.4% vs book price

Round of · 32FT · 1–1

Germany

Home

Paraguay

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.25

Model win chance49%

+4.9% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 3–3

Algeria

Home

Austria

Away

Over 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.70

Model win chance40%

+12.1% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 1–3

Jordan

Home

Argentina

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.35

Model win chance43%

+5.7% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 0–0

Cape Verde Islands

Home

Saudi Arabia

Away

BTTS: No

Both Teams Score@ 1.95

Model win chance55%

+5.7% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 0–1

Uruguay

Home

Spain

Away

Over 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 1.83

Model win chance44%

+3.4% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 1–5

New Zealand

Home

Belgium

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.70Fades public

Model win chance34%

+8.7% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 1–1

Egypt

Home

Iran

Away

Over 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.75

Model win chance38%

+3.6% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 0–2

Panama

Home

England

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.70

Model win chance39%

+6.6% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 2–1

Croatia

Home

Ghana

Away

Home Win

Match Result@ 1.72

Model win chance60%

+6.8% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 0–0

Colombia

Home

Portugal

Away

BTTS: Yes

Both Teams Score@ 1.85

Model win chance64%

+5.9% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 3–1

Congo DR

Home

Uzbekistan

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 1.90

Model win chance68%

+11.4% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 3–2

Türkiye

Home

USA

Away

Home Win

Match Result@ 3.45

Model win chance46%

+21.5% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 0–0

Paraguay

Home

Australia

Away

Away Win

Match Result@ 4.30

Model win chance32%

+9.4% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 1–4

Norway

Home

France

Away

Home Win

Match Result@ 4.50

Model win chance26%

+12.2% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 5–0

Senegal

Home

Iraq

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.45

Model win chance49%

+10.5% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 1–0

South Africa

Home

South Korea

Away

BTTS: No

Both Teams Score@ 1.77Fades public

Model win chance57%

+1.6% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 0–3

Czechia

Home

Mexico

Away

Draw

Match Result@ 3.70

Model win chance27%

+2.9% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 0–2

Curaçao

Home

Ivory Coast

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.45

Model win chance42%

+7.8% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 2–1

Ecuador

Home

Germany

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.10

Model win chance58%

+15.5% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 1–1

Japan

Home

Sweden

Away

Home Win

Match Result@ 1.90

Model win chance64%

+15.9% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 1–3

Tunisia

Home

Netherlands

Away

BTTS: Yes

Both Teams Score@ 2.65

Model win chance42%

+3.2% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 1–0

Colombia

Home

Congo DR

Away

Over 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.25

Model win chance62%

+18.4% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 2–1

Switzerland

Home

Canada

Away

Home Win

Match Result@ 2.44

Model win chance50%

+11.8% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 3–1

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Home

Qatar

Away

Away Win

Match Result@ 6.00

Model win chance21%

+7.9% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 0–3

Scotland

Home

Brazil

Away

BTTS: Yes

Both Teams Score@ 2.25

Model win chance48%

+6.6% vs book price

Group Stage · 3FT · 4–2

Morocco

Home

Haiti

Away

BTTS: No

Both Teams Score@ 1.55Fades public

Model win chance68%

+7.0% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 3–2

Norway

Home

Senegal

Away

Home Win

Match Result@ 2.20

Model win chance50%

+7.4% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 1–2

Jordan

Home

Algeria

Away

Over 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 1.90

Model win chance58%

+8.1% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 5–0

Portugal

Home

Uzbekistan

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.40

Model win chance57%

+21.6% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 0–0

England

Home

Ghana

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.25

Model win chance61%

+22.1% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 0–1

Panama

Home

Croatia

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.00

Model win chance52%

+8.6% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 1–3

New Zealand

Home

Egypt

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 1.65

Model win chance64%

+11.7% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 2–0

Argentina

Home

Austria

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 1.83

Model win chance66%

+14.9% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 3–0

France

Home

Iraq

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 3.25

Model win chance49%

+22.0% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 0–0

Ecuador

Home

Curaçao

Away

Home Win

Match Result@ 1.18Fades public

Model win chance85%

+3.1% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 0–4

Tunisia

Home

Japan

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 1.65

Model win chance61%

+6.7% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 4–0

Spain

Home

Saudi Arabia

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.60

Model win chance33%

+3.3% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 0–0

Belgium

Home

Iran

Away

Away Win

Match Result@ 8.20

Model win chance24%

+12.4% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 2–2

Uruguay

Home

Cape Verde Islands

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 1.90

Model win chance68%

+10.5% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 3–0

Brazil

Home

Haiti

Away

Over 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 1.35

Model win chance77%

+7.6% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 0–1

Türkiye

Home

Paraguay

Away

Away Win

Match Result@ 3.80

Model win chance31%

+6.9% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 5–1

Netherlands

Home

Sweden

Away

Home Win

Match Result@ 1.63

Model win chance69%

+13.3% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 2–1

Germany

Home

Ivory Coast

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.00

Model win chance48%

+8.6% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 1–0

Mexico

Home

South Korea

Away

Home Win

Match Result@ 1.90

Model win chance50%

+1.4% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 2–0

USA

Home

Australia

Away

Away Win

Match Result@ 5.60

Model win chance34%

+17.0% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 0–1

Scotland

Home

Morocco

Away

Away Win

Match Result@ 1.70

Model win chance63%

+8.3% vs book price

Group Stage · 1FT · 1–3

Uzbekistan

Home

Colombia

Away

Home Win

Match Result@ 8.60

Model win chance16%

+4.6% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 1–1

Czechia

Home

South Africa

Away

Over 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.00

Model win chance53%

+5.7% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 4–1

Switzerland

Home

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Away

Over 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.10

Model win chance59%

+13.5% vs book price

Group Stage · 2FT · 6–0

Canada

Home

Qatar

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.00

Model win chance52%

+4.5% vs book price

Group Stage · 1FT · 3–0

Argentina

Home

Algeria

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 1.83

Model win chance66%

+14.7% vs book price

Group Stage · 1FT · 3–1

Austria

Home

Jordan

Away

Over 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 1.67

Model win chance59%

+2.6% vs book price

Group Stage · 1FT · 1–1

Portugal

Home

Congo DR

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.10

Model win chance49%

+4.5% vs book price

Group Stage · 1FT · 4–2

England

Home

Croatia

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 1.70

Model win chance65%

+9.5% vs book price

Group Stage · 1FT · 1–0

Ghana

Home

Panama

Away

Away Win

Match Result@ 3.35

Model win chance38%

+10.1% vs book price

Group Stage · 1FT · 2–2

Iran

Home

New Zealand

Away

Home Win

Match Result@ 1.84

Model win chance59%

+7.9% vs book price

Group Stage · 1FT · 3–1

France

Home

Senegal

Away

Away Win

Match Result@ 6.60

Model win chance20%

+5.2% vs book price

Group Stage · 1FT · 1–4

Iraq

Home

Norway

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.35

Model win chance50%

+9.7% vs book price

Group Stage · 1FT · 5–1

Sweden

Home

Tunisia

Away

Over 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 2.10

Model win chance57%

+12.8% vs book price

Group Stage · 1FT · 0–0

Spain

Home

Cape Verde Islands

Away

Draw

Match Result@ 9.60

Model win chance11%

+1.3% vs book price

Group Stage · 1FT · 1–1

Belgium

Home

Egypt

Away

Away Win

Match Result@ 5.50

Model win chance22%

+4.8% vs book price

Group Stage · 1FT · 1–1

Saudi Arabia

Home

Uruguay

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 1.77

Model win chance68%

+15.0% vs book price

Group Stage · 1FT · 1–0

Ivory Coast

Home

Ecuador

Away

Under 2.5

Total Goals 2.5@ 1.40

Model win chance80%

+12.1% vs book price