Insights

44 INSIGHTS · RANKED BY MODEL CONVICTION

PRO FEATURE

Pro insights

Model-backed insights for tonight, ranked by conviction — prop edges, situational trends, factor alerts and track-record streaks, each with its full reasoning.

The full readout on every insight — projection vs line, side, confidence

See the graded record →

WORKED EXAMPLE

PROP EDGE · WNBAA'ja Wilson — Points Over 22.5Projection 24.4 vs line 22.5 — a +1.9 gap at 73% calibrated confidence. Logged before tip-off, graded by the box score.

A full Pro insight card — the readout free users see redacted.

How to read these

line: the sportsbook’s posted number — what you’d bet over/under.
proj: duban’s model projection — what we expect the player to actually do.
edge: proj minus line. The sign is the side: − leans under, + leans over. Bigger = bigger disagreement with the book.
conviction: calibrated confidence the pick hits (tuned from how often past picks this strong won).
✓ WIN / ✕ LOSS: graded after the game, against the line on the side we picked (not against the projection). PENDING = game not final. Accuracy only — no odds/profit yet.

#1
EdgePTS✓ WIN
Mikal Bridges
▲ Overprojects 17.1 · line 11.5 · edge +5.6
under+5.6 ptsover
conviction81%
#2
EdgePTS✕ LOSS
Keldon Johnson
▲ Overprojects 10.9 · line 6.5 · edge +4.4
under+4.4 ptsover
conviction81%
#3
EdgePTS✕ LOSS
Jose Alvarado
▲ Overprojects 5.7 · line 2.5 · edge +3.2
under+3.2 ptsover
conviction81%
#4
EdgePTS✕ LOSS
Harrison Barnes
▲ Overprojects 6.2 · line 1.5 · edge +4.7
under+4.7 ptsover
conviction81%
#5
EdgePTS✕ LOSS
Victor Wembanyama
▼ Underprojects 23.9 · line 27.5 · edge −3.6
under−3.6 ptsover
conviction78%
#6
EdgePTS✓ WIN
OG Anunoby
▲ Overprojects 17.4 · line 14.5 · edge +2.9
under+2.9 ptsover
conviction75%
#7
EdgePTS✕ LOSS
Miles McBride
▲ Overprojects 7.8 · line 5.5 · edge +2.3
under+2.3 ptsover
conviction67%
#8
EdgePTS✓ WIN
Karl-Anthony Towns
▲ Overprojects 18.6 · line 16.5 · edge +2.1
under+2.1 ptsover
conviction62%
#9
StreakPTS✓ WIN
Mikal Bridges
Mikal Bridges has cleared 11.5 PTS in 9 of the last 10.
conviction57%
#10
TrendPTS✕ LOSS
Harrison Barnes
▲ Overprojects 6.2 · line 1.5 · edge +4.7
under+4.7 ptsover
conviction57%
#11
EdgePTS✕ LOSS
Luke Kornet
▲ Overprojects 3.9 · line 2.5 · edge +1.4
under+1.4 ptsover
conviction55%
#12
EdgePTS✓ WIN
Mitchell Robinson
▲ Overprojects 4.8 · line 3.5 · edge +1.3
under+1.3 ptsover
conviction53%
#13
EdgePTS✕ LOSS
Jalen Brunson
▲ Overprojects 26.9 · line 25.5 · edge +1.4
under+1.4 ptsover
conviction52%
#14
EdgePTS✓ WIN
De'Aaron Fox
▲ Overprojects 16.8 · line 15.5 · edge +1.3
under+1.3 ptsover
conviction50%
#15
TrendPTS✓ WIN
Karl-Anthony Towns
▲ Overprojects 18.6 · line 16.5 · edge +2.1
under+2.1 ptsover
conviction49%
#16
TrendPTS✕ LOSS
Miles McBride
▲ Overprojects 7.8 · line 5.5 · edge +2.3
under+2.3 ptsover
conviction49%
#17
EdgePTS✓ WIN
Devin Vassell
▲ Overprojects 13.6 · line 12.5 · edge +1.1
under+1.1 ptsover
conviction48%
#18
TrendPTS✕ LOSS
Keldon Johnson
▲ Overprojects 10.9 · line 6.5 · edge +4.4
under+4.4 ptsover
conviction45%
#19
EdgePTS✓ WIN
Landry Shamet
▲ Overprojects 8.2 · line 7.5 · edge +0.7
under+0.7 ptsover
conviction42%
#20
TrendPTS✕ LOSS
Luke Kornet
▲ Overprojects 3.9 · line 2.5 · edge +1.4
under+1.4 ptsover
conviction40%
#21
TrendPTS✓ WIN
Landry Shamet
▲ Overprojects 8.2 · line 7.5 · edge +0.7
under+0.7 ptsover
conviction40%
#22
StreakPTS✓ WIN
OG Anunoby
OG Anunoby has cleared 14.5 PTS in 8 of the last 10.
conviction39%
#23
StreakPTS✕ LOSS
Jose Alvarado
Jose Alvarado has cleared 2.5 PTS in 8 of the last 10.
conviction39%
#24
TrendPTS✓ WIN
OG Anunoby
▲ Overprojects 17.4 · line 14.5 · edge +2.9
under+2.9 ptsover
conviction38%
#25
EdgePTS✕ LOSS
Julian Champagnie
▲ Overprojects 10.9 · line 10.5 · edge +0.4
under+0.4 ptsover
conviction37%
#26
TrendPTS✓ WIN
De'Aaron Fox
▲ Overprojects 16.8 · line 15.5 · edge +1.3
under+1.3 ptsover
conviction36%
?
Trend
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#28
Foul troublePTS✕ LOSS
Josh Hart
Josh Hart's Over 11.5 PTS miss came in foul trouble.
conviction34%
#29
EdgePTS✕ LOSS
Josh Hart
▲ Overprojects 11.7 · line 11.5 · edge +0.2
under+0.2 ptsover
conviction33%
#30
EdgePTS✕ LOSS
Stephon Castle
▲ Overprojects 16.7 · line 16.5 · edge +0.2
under+0.2 ptsover
conviction33%
#31
EdgePTS✕ LOSS
Dylan Harper
▼ Underprojects 11.8 · line 12 · edge −0.2
under−0.2 ptsover
conviction33%
?
Trend
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Trend
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Trend
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Trend
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Trend
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#37
StreakPTS✓ WIN
Mitchell Robinson
Mitchell Robinson has cleared 3.5 PTS in 7 of the last 10.
conviction21%
#38
StreakPTS✕ LOSS
Victor Wembanyama
Victor Wembanyama has stayed under 27.5 PTS in 7 of the last 10.
conviction21%
#39
StreakPTS✕ LOSS
Stephon Castle
Stephon Castle has cleared 16.5 PTS in 7 of the last 10.
conviction21%
?
Trend
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Trend
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Trend
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Track record
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